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TROPICAL STORM NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST SUN OCT 25 2009

AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 165.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII AND ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD TONIGHT…THEN BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY MID DAY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS NEKI UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…25.0N 165.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

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TROPICAL STORM NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 PM HST SAT OCT 24 2009

…TROPICAL STORM NEKI STALLS FAR NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…

AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 163.9 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIHUE…HAWAII AND ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS NEARLY STATIONARY…BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY…NEKI WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY LATE MONDAY…NEKI MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…24.8N 163.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

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TROPICAL STORM NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 22…CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST FRI OCT 23 2009

…CENTER OF NEKI PASSING BETWEEN NECKER ISLAND AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 165.2 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII AND ABOUT 80 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES…ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 20 FEET…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND NECKER ISLAND. CONDITIIONS WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS NEKI SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.

…SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…23.4N 165.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

click on image for full disc

HURRICANE NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 PM HST THU OCT 22 2009

THE HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 165.9 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES WEST OF LIHUE HAWAII AND ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF NEKI.

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEKI ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT. SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WILL BUILD TO 20 FEET OR GREATER…CREATING SURF OF 20 TO 25 FT.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…22.3N 165.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

Papahanaumokuakea National Monument Facing Hurricane Neki

By Rob Gutro, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA's Terra satellite passed over Neki and the MODIS instrument captured an image that clearly shows an eye, on October 21 at 11:45 a.m. HST local time. Credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response Team

A hurricane warning is in force for the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument from Nihoa Island to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef. Hurricane conditions likely there by 5 a.m. HST on Friday, October 23.

The Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument is the single largest conservation area under the U.S. flag, and one of the largest marine conservation areas in the world. It encompasses 139,797 square miles of the Pacific Ocean (105,564 square nautical miles) – an area larger than all the country’s national parks combined.

Many of the islands and shallow water environments in the National Monument are important habitats for rare species such as the threatened green sea turtle and the endangered Hawaiian monk seal.

As Hurricane Neki nears, the storm had maximum sustained winds near 115 mph at 5 a.m. HST (11 a.m. EDT) today, October 22. It was located about 245 miles south of French frigate shoals and 525 miles west of Honolulu, Hawaii, near 20.4 North and 166.0 West. Neki was moving north-northeast near 10 mph, and had a minimum central pressure of 965 millibars.

Neki’s hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.

NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Neki and captured an image of the large storm using the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on October 21 at 2145 UTC (5:45 p.m. EDT/11:45 a.m. HST local time).

NASA Aqua satellite also took a look at Neki, and measured the storm’s thunderstorm cloud-top temperatures using infrared imagery. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument showed some high thunderstorm tops in Neki indicating heavy rainfall and strong convection. Those cloud temperatures were colder than minus 63F.

High seas are a concern with Neki. Neki is creating high seas of 15 to 20 feet that will build up across the smaller islands of the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument. For more information about the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument, visit: papahanaumokuakea.gov/.

Little change in Neki’s strength is forecast over the next 24 hours, but Neki is expected weaken as the storm heads into cooler waters and wind shear. Neki is forecast to continue moving northeast and then weaken to a depression by early next week.

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 AM HST THU OCT 22 2009

…DANGEROUS HURRICANE NEKI CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD…

THE HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. ON THIS TRACK…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.64 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF NEKI.

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF NEKI ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT. SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 20 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY…CREATING SURF OF 20 TO 25 FT.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…20.8N 166.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.NE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

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TROPICAL STORM NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST MON OCT 19 2009

AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANYONE ON OR NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NEKI. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND LATE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 161.0 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 670 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS… NEKI IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…11.6N 161.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

Two NASA Satellites See Tropical Storm Neki Form in the Central Pacific

By Rob Gutro, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA's QuikScat instrument captured an inside look at Tropical Storm Neki's winds on Oct. 19 at 0425 UTC (12:25 a.m. EDT). White barbs point to areas of heavy rain. The highest wind speeds, are shown in purple, which indicate winds over 40 knots (46 mph). Credit: NASA JPL, Peter Falco

Tropical Storm Neki formed today about 830 miles southeast of Johnston Island in the Central Pacific Ocean. NASA’s QuikScat and Aqua satellites quickly captured and analyzed winds and temperatures in Neki, enabling forecasters to see the storm strengthening.

Today, October 19, at 11 a.m. EDT (5 a.m. HST) Neki had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and was moving west-northwest near 14 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 millibars. It was 825 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii and about 830 miles southeast of Johnston Island near latitude 9.5 North and longitude 159.6 West. Neki is expected to shift slowly toward the northwest later tonight or Tuesday, at which time it is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane.

NASA’s QuikScat instrument captured an inside look at Tropical Storm Neki’s surface winds using microwave technology from its vantage point in space on Oct. 19 at 0425 UTC (12:25 a.m. EDT). QuikScat showed highest wind speeds near 40 mph.

NASA’s Aqua satellite also flew above Neki and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument captured a visible, infrared and microwave image of the storm. The visible image showed a storm getting organized and developing the signature tropical storm shape. The infrared and microwave images confirmed some high thunderstorms, indicating some strong convection and a strengthening storm.

Neki is forecast to pass very close to Johnston Island on Wednesday, October 21 as a hurricane.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009

…NORA NOW A REMNANT LOW…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF OF THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS FORMERLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST OR ABOUT 890 MILES…1430 KM… WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR… AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.2N 122.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE… UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

More info at National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST THU AUG 27 2009

…HILDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING WEST…

AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 155.0 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS…BECOMING A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…14.1N 155.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center: www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc

Weather forecasts of all the islands: www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2009

…IGNACIO DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1110 MILES…1785 KM…WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…25.4N 127.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IGNACIO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center: www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc

Weather forecasts of all the islands: www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl

By Rob Gutro, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

The ninth tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season formed over this past weekend, and it looks like it’s on a slow track to getting a name. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center note in their discussion on August 10 that computer models indicate that it may strengthen enough to become a tropical storm in couple of days.

This AIRS Infrared image from August 10 shows cold high clouds (in blue) from TD9E are in two areas, indicating a disorganized tropical cyclone. Credit: NASA/JPL, Ed Olsen

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 9E (TD9E) remains disorganized, and that’s evident in NASA’s satellite data from NASA’s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), an instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite. The AIRS infrared image reveals 2 areas of clouds that make up TD9E, not a tight circle or comma shaped storm, which would indicate a well- organized tropical cyclone.

At 11 a.m. EDT, TD9E had sustained winds near 35 mph, and was moving west near 9 mph. It was quite far from land, near 14.9 north and 123.1 west. That’s about 1,025 miles west-southwest of the Baja California, an area that seems to be a hot-spot for tropical development this season. TD9E’s minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.

AIRS satellite imagery from August 10 at 5:47 a.m. EDT shows that the storm doesn’t have any intense precipitation areas yet. NASA false-colors the AIRS infrared imagery to indicate the location of the highest clouds in a storm. In the AIRS imagery, purple coloration indicates the highest clouds, while blue coloration indicates lower clouds. The AIRS image indicated only the lower clouds in TD9E. Those clouds, however are still icy cold, about 240 Kelvin, or minus 27F.

The bottom line in storms is: the colder the clouds are, the higher they are, and the more powerful the thunderstorms are that make up the cyclone. TD9E has a way to go to get those powerful thunderstorms and the purple coloration show up in the NASA AIRS infrared satellite imagery.

Winds coming from the direction of Tropical Storm Felicia push the cloud cover towards the west in this time-lapse photography movie of Hilo Bay Sunday afternoon. Photography by Baron Sekiya/Hawaii247.org

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 09 2009

…FELICIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING THIS EVENING…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU…THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII…AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY…WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…KAHOOLAWE…LANAI…AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF FELICIA.

AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 149.2 WEST OR ABOUT 395 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO…HAWAII AND ABOUT 560 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU…HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE OUTER WINDS FROM FELICIA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERNMOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS EITHER A TROPICAL STORM OR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH FELICIA IS STILL EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…A BUILDING SWELL GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REMAINING HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF FELICIA WHEN IT REACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…21.0N 149.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Hurricane Categories Explained: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

Weather forecasts of all the islands: www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl

Satellite image taken at Aug 9 at 0900 UTC. Images courtesy of NOAA-NASA GOES Project Click on image above for full earth image.

ACTIONS TO TAKE WHEN A HURRICANE NEARS HAWAII
All of Hawaii’s citizens should know what to do during hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. Watches and warnings are prepared for the Hawaiian Islands by the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. When watches and warnings are issued, people should closely monitor radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm’s progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Although you and your family may have never experienced a hurricane, don’t be complacent! It’s not a matter of if a hurricane will occur, but when one will occur. All of the Hawaiian Islands are at risk for a hurricane and we should all know what actions to take.”

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible in the specificed area of the Watch, usually within 48 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued:

Hurricane preparedness supplies at Home Depot in Hilo. Photography by Baron Sekiya/Hawaii247.org

• Fuel and service family vehicles.
• Prepare to cover all windows and door openings with boards, shutters or other shielding materials.
• Check food and water supplies. Have clean, air-tight containers on hand to store at least two weeks of drinking water (14 gallons per person), and stock up on canned provisions. Keep a small cooler with frozen gel packs handy for packing refrigerated items.
• Check prescription medicines – obtain at least 10 days to 2 weeks supply.
• Stock up on extra batteries for radios, flashlights, and lanterns.
• Store and secure outdoor lawn furniture and other loose, lightweight objects, such as garbage cans and garden tools.
• Check and replenish first-aid supplies.
• Have on hand an extra supply of cash.

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of the Warning, usually within 36 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued:

• Follow instructions issued by civil defense. Leave immediately if ordered to do so.
• Complete preparation activities, such as boarding up windows and storing loose objects.
• Evacuate areas that might be affected by storm surge flooding. If evacuating, leave early.
• Notify neighbors and a family member outside of the warned area of your evacuation plans.

Hawaii County Civil Defense Huricane Preparedness Guide: co.hawaii.hi.us/cd/hpg/main.html

The Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross has Hurricane Preparedness Guide

HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII…AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY…WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…KAHOOLAWE…LANAI…AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE OF HAWAII…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF OAHU…KAUAI…AND NIIHAU…SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.7 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF HILO…HAWAII AND ABOUT 855 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU…HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK… FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…20.3N 144.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

HURRICANE FELICIA APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY…MICROWAVE DATA AND HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 0729 UTC INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FILLED TO 990 MB. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 80 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 700 MB AROUND 0600 UTC. THERE WERE ALSO SFMR WINDS FOR THE SURFACE OF UP TO 69 KT AROUND THE SAME TIME. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL ALSO INDICATED THE AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADJUSTED TO THE SURFACE ARE NEAR 63-68 KT. THESE AIRCRAFT DATA…ALONG WITH DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 4.0…INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS WEAKENED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACCORDING TO THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DATA FROM SEVERAL SATELLITES WITH MICROWAVE DATA FROM AROUND 0300 UTC INDICATED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WAS STARTING TO BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER…WHICH MAY SUGGEST INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STARTING TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE.

THE CURRENT MOTION OF FELICIA IS 280/13…WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 12 HOUR MOTION. SOME OF THE MODELS FORECAST FELICIA TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE BEFORE TURNING DUE WEST…WHILE MOST OF THE OTHERS CALL FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE AT 270 DEGREES WITHIN 12 TO 24. BEYOND 24 HOURS OR SO…ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A DUE WESTWARD HEADING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE…WITH TRACKS CROSSING THE MAIN HAWAII ISLANDS AT VARYING LATITUDES. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE WAS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WAS ALSO SLOWED SLIGHTLY BEYOND 36 HOURS…SINCE THE GUIDANCE WAS QUITE A BIT SLOWER AT THAT TIME. NOTE THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF VERY RELIABLE MODELS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREFORE…THE CENTER OF FELICIA COULD PASS OVER ANY PORTION OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND. THE UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR ABOUT 25 CELSIUS…BUT THESE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER…WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 10 KT…AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 20 KT WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME FELICIA IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THESE FACTORS BY FORECASTING GRADUAL WEAKENING…BUT ALL OF THEM HOLD ON TO A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 36 HOURS…AND SOME EVEN TO 72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS…ICON.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTING…IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THAT PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FELICIA BEING A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS VERY NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ABOUT A 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT BEING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY MORNING…SINCE THE LEAD TIME FOR WARNINGS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IS 36 HOURS.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Hurricane Categories Explained: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

Weather forecasts of all the islands: www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl

Satellite image taken at Aug 9 at 0900 UTC. Images courtesy of NOAA-NASA GOES Project Click on image above for full earth image.

ACTIONS TO TAKE WHEN A HURRICANE NEARS HAWAII
All of Hawaii’s citizens should know what to do during hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. Watches and warnings are prepared for the Hawaiian Islands by the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. When watches and warnings are issued, people should closely monitor radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm’s progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Although you and your family may have never experienced a hurricane, don’t be complacent! It’s not a matter of if a hurricane will occur, but when one will occur. All of the Hawaiian Islands are at risk for a hurricane and we should all know what actions to take.”

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible in the specificed area of the Watch, usually within 48 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued:

Hurricane preparedness supplies at Home Depot in Hilo. Photography by Baron Sekiya/Hawaii247.org

• Fuel and service family vehicles.
• Prepare to cover all windows and door openings with boards, shutters or other shielding materials.
• Check food and water supplies. Have clean, air-tight containers on hand to store at least two weeks of drinking water (14 gallons per person), and stock up on canned provisions. Keep a small cooler with frozen gel packs handy for packing refrigerated items.
• Check prescription medicines – obtain at least 10 days to 2 weeks supply.
• Stock up on extra batteries for radios, flashlights, and lanterns.
• Store and secure outdoor lawn furniture and other loose, lightweight objects, such as garbage cans and garden tools.
• Check and replenish first-aid supplies.
• Have on hand an extra supply of cash.

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of the Warning, usually within 36 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued:

• Follow instructions issued by civil defense. Leave immediately if ordered to do so.
• Complete preparation activities, such as boarding up windows and storing loose objects.
• Evacuate areas that might be affected by storm surge flooding. If evacuating, leave early.
• Notify neighbors and a family member outside of the warned area of your evacuation plans.

Hawaii County Civil Defense Huricane Preparedness Guide: co.hawaii.hi.us/cd/hpg/main.html

The Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross has Hurricane Preparedness Guide