MEDIA RELEASE

NASA is all “a-Twitter” about its tropical cyclone research.

In 2005, NASA created its Hurricane and Tropical Cyclone Web page that covers research on tropical cyclones around the world every day. That includes all ocean basins in both the northern and southern hemispheres.

Now, NASA’s Hurricane page has a companion Twitter page.

NASAHurricane on Twitter is updated daily and provides updates on the tropical cyclone happenings in various ocean basins. The primary source for “Tweets” is the daily storm updates from the NASA Hurricane page (www.nasa.gov/hurricane).

The storm updates always include a NASA satellite image of a tropical cyclone, its most recent strength and location, and what the NASA satellite image reveals. If there are watches and warnings, the updates usually include them from the forecast source.

Separate Web features that highlight NASA hurricane research are also posted on the NASAHurricane Twitter site. The site also includes research features on topics such as the status of El Ninos and La Ninas, flood maps of areas inundated by tropical cyclones, hurricane videos, and more.

“The Twitter site is also used to provide up-to-the-minute updates, including watches and warnings, and background information,” said Rob Gutro, manager of the NASA Hurricane Page at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “Even though there may not be tropical activity in an ocean basin, people still want to know why and Twitter provides the vehicle to do that in an easy way on a daily basis.”

The Twitter NASAHurricane uses information from numerous forecast centers, including the National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

If there’s a tropical wave that is has any potential for development, and it’s cited by one of the forecast centers, NASAHurricane’s Twitter will explain what it is, and where it is.

NASA uses several satellites in hurricane research including Aqua, CloudSat, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite, Jason-1, the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2, Landsat, QuikScat, and Terra.

NASA also creates images from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. NASA researches hurricanes and supplies some of the data from these satellites to NOAA, which forecasts the storms.

Each storm update on the NASA Hurricane page, and subsequently posted on Twitter, will reference what at least one of these satellites is seeing in a current tropical cyclone.

Using all of these satellites and their instruments and computer modeling, NASA scientists gather data on many factors that determine if a tropical cyclone may strengthen or weaken.

Data include: storm and surface winds; sea surface heights and temperatures; rainfall intensity and area; lightning; cloud water; water vapor; cloud heights, extent of cloud cover and cloud temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure; cloud development; and size of the storm.

All of this research is housed on NASA’s Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Web page, which explains the research NASA does on tropical cyclones.

It contains daily storm updates from storms around the world, videos, educator lesson plans, a storm archive since 2005, videos and animations, International Space Station cyclone videos, a live alerts feed on the Atlantic Basin from the National Hurricane Center, NASA hurricane missions, “About Hurricanes: background information,” fact sheet, “Hurricanes in History,” and education links.

“NASAHurricane Twitter is excited about communicating ‘in-real-time’ to hurricane enthusiasts worldwide,” said climatologist Bill Patzert at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in Pasadena, Calif. “‘Tweeting’ the latest in NASA research and technology, developing hurricane events and impacts cranks up NASA’s commitment to rapidly providing the most up-to-date and useful hurricane information to every level of society.”

— Find out more:

twitter.com/NASAHurricane

Another earthquake or hurricane requires readiness

Waimea community to focus on emergency preparedness planning at Thursday, Nov. 5, 2009 town meeting

Community Resilience: the ability to recover from or adjust to misfortune or change; the capacity to withstand shock without permanent deformation.

The “misfortune” or “stress” for a rural community such as Waimea could be any of a wide array of natural or man-made disasters: pandemic illness such as swine flu, earthquake, hurricane or flood, serious shortages of food, fuel or water; wildfire or chemical spill, or a cumulative disaster caused by global warming or volcanic eruption.

The question is: How does a community – in this case, Waimea – prepare for and reduce the risk of emergencies or disasters, which experts say are not a matter of “if” but “when”? What kind of preparation should occur individually and collectively, knowing that public emergency services would, at best, be strained.

“Think about it: what if we were “off-grid” for a month?” said Margaret Wille, a Waimea Community Association (WCA) Board member who is coordinating the November Town Meeting on emergency preparedness.

These questions will be the focus of the 5 p.m., Thurs., Nov. 5 WCA Town Meeting at Waimea School Cafeteria. (Note both time and location change for this monthly meeting to accommodate presentations and round table discussions.)

“This isn’t intended to scare anyone, but rather, develop a clear understanding of risks, needs, vulnerable points and begin planning appropriate responses,” said WCA President Bill Sanborn.

“We will brainstorm ways we can reduce our risks and how we can better prepare for any disaster,” said Wille. “By mitigating our risks,” she explained, “we will become a more self-sufficient and sustainable community.”

Representatives from various community responder organizations will participate including Quince Mento with Hawai’i County Civil Defense, a representatives from “Firewise Community,” and Community Emergency Response Training (CERT) volunteers, as well as business and private organizations.

The meeting will begin with “Show and Share” tables from 5-5:30 p.m. in the Waimea school cafeteria featuring governmental agencies, schools, churches and local businesses. Any group, business, community organization, church or individual interested in sharing information is invited to participate with a presentation table.

The meeting will begin at 5:30 p.m. with general announcements, followed by an introduction of all participants. Then, community members will participate in drafting a Community Plan of Risks, Needs and To Do Lists, and conclude with a discussion of “next steps” including possible grants and assignments. The meeting will conclude by 7:15 p.m.

“It’s a first-step open discussion to help us begin thinking through our individual and collective roles and responsibilities,” said Sanborn.

This town meeting comes on the heels of a recent month-long Community Emergency Response Training (CERT) program at Tutu’s House. CERT trainings have been held all over the Big Island.

As with all WCA Town Meetings, the entire community is invited. There is no charge to attend or participate though a $12 WCA membership urged to support the association’s informational activities and the annual Waimea Christmas Twilight Parade – at 6 p.m., Sat., Dec. 5, 2009.

Also, to continue WCA’s 2009 commitment to help Waimea’s hard-pressed food pantries, all attendees are urged to bring a donation – preferably cash or a check – or non-perishable food items. Cash or checks will be given to the Waimea pantries to purchase gift certificates from Waimea grocery stores so that recipients are able to buy fresh items such as milk, vegetables or fruit as well as other essentials. Checks may be payable direct to a food pantry so may be tax deductible to the extent permitted by law.

For more information, to host an informational table or otherwise assist, call Margaret Wille at margaretwille@mac.com or call 887-1419, or WCA President Bill Sanborn (895-1122).

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TROPICAL STORM NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 22…CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST FRI OCT 23 2009

…CENTER OF NEKI PASSING BETWEEN NECKER ISLAND AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 165.2 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII AND ABOUT 80 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES…ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 20 FEET…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND NECKER ISLAND. CONDITIIONS WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS NEKI SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.

…SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…23.4N 165.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

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HURRICANE NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 PM HST THU OCT 22 2009

THE HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 165.9 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES WEST OF LIHUE HAWAII AND ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF NEKI.

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEKI ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT. SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WILL BUILD TO 20 FEET OR GREATER…CREATING SURF OF 20 TO 25 FT.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…22.3N 165.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

Papahanaumokuakea National Monument Facing Hurricane Neki

By Rob Gutro, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA's Terra satellite passed over Neki and the MODIS instrument captured an image that clearly shows an eye, on October 21 at 11:45 a.m. HST local time. Credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response Team

A hurricane warning is in force for the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument from Nihoa Island to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef. Hurricane conditions likely there by 5 a.m. HST on Friday, October 23.

The Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument is the single largest conservation area under the U.S. flag, and one of the largest marine conservation areas in the world. It encompasses 139,797 square miles of the Pacific Ocean (105,564 square nautical miles) – an area larger than all the country’s national parks combined.

Many of the islands and shallow water environments in the National Monument are important habitats for rare species such as the threatened green sea turtle and the endangered Hawaiian monk seal.

As Hurricane Neki nears, the storm had maximum sustained winds near 115 mph at 5 a.m. HST (11 a.m. EDT) today, October 22. It was located about 245 miles south of French frigate shoals and 525 miles west of Honolulu, Hawaii, near 20.4 North and 166.0 West. Neki was moving north-northeast near 10 mph, and had a minimum central pressure of 965 millibars.

Neki’s hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.

NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Neki and captured an image of the large storm using the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on October 21 at 2145 UTC (5:45 p.m. EDT/11:45 a.m. HST local time).

NASA Aqua satellite also took a look at Neki, and measured the storm’s thunderstorm cloud-top temperatures using infrared imagery. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument showed some high thunderstorm tops in Neki indicating heavy rainfall and strong convection. Those cloud temperatures were colder than minus 63F.

High seas are a concern with Neki. Neki is creating high seas of 15 to 20 feet that will build up across the smaller islands of the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument. For more information about the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument, visit: papahanaumokuakea.gov/.

Little change in Neki’s strength is forecast over the next 24 hours, but Neki is expected weaken as the storm heads into cooler waters and wind shear. Neki is forecast to continue moving northeast and then weaken to a depression by early next week.

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 AM HST THU OCT 22 2009

…DANGEROUS HURRICANE NEKI CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD…

THE HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. ON THIS TRACK…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.64 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF NEKI.

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF NEKI ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT. SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 20 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY…CREATING SURF OF 20 TO 25 FT.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…20.8N 166.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.NE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
800 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2009

…HURRICANE NEKI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS….

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 800 PM HST…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 165.6 WEST OR ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. NEKI WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.

ANYONE NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NEKI. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER TONIGHT.

…SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…15.9N 165.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

NASA’s TRMM Sees Some Heavy Rains in Neki as it Heads Toward Johnston Island

By Rob Gutro, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

TRMM's analysis of rainfall within Neki showed areas of heavy rainfall. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. Red areas are heavy rainfall at almost 2 inches per hour. Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, or TRMM satellite has been flying over Tropical Storm Neki in the Central Pacific Ocean and providing scientists with an idea of how much rainfall Johnston Island can expect from it.

A Hurricane Watch is already in effect for Johnston Island. That means hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be issued later today, meaning hurricane conditions are happening.

Johnston Island is the main island in the Johnston Atoll, a 50-square-mile atoll in the North Pacific Ocean. It’s located 750 nautical miles west of Hawaii. The Atoll consists of four islands: Johnston, Sand, North Island and East Island.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, managed by NASA and the Japanese Space Agency (JAXA) passed over Tropical Storm Neki on October 20 at 1043 UTC (6:43 a.m. EDT/12:43a.m. HST) and captured a look at Neki’s rainfall. TRMM found that there were some areas of heavy rainfall in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Rainfall rates were around 2 inches per hour in that part of Neki.

Rain rates are created from different instruments aboard TRMM. The rain rates in the center of TRMM images are derived from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, the only spaceborne radar of its kind, while those in the outer portion are from the TRMM Microwave Imager. The rain rates are then overlaid on infrared data from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner to create the entire image. The images are created at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, in Greenbelt, Md.

TRMM also has the ability to analyze how high the thunderstorms are in tropical cyclones, and this morning’s image indicated there were some “hot towers,” that is, towering thunderstorms that are almost 15 kilometers (about 9 miles) high. That’s an indication that the storm is strengthening.

At 2 a.m. HST (8 a.m. EDT) on October 20, Tropical Storm Neki’s maximum sustained winds had increased from 40 mph to 50 mph, and it is expected to continue intensifying. Neki was located about 515 miles east-southeast of Johnston Island, and 640 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. It was near 13.0 North and 162.8 West. Neki is moving northwest near 18 mph and will continue in that direction for the next two days, although it is forecast to slow down. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars.

Neki will continue to strengthen as it moves northwest and could pass Johnston Island as a hurricane. Tropical Storm Neki is headed for a landfall over the tiny island by Thursday, October 22.

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TROPICAL STORM NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST MON OCT 19 2009

AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANYONE ON OR NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NEKI. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND LATE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 161.0 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 670 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS… NEKI IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…11.6N 161.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

Two NASA Satellites See Tropical Storm Neki Form in the Central Pacific

By Rob Gutro, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA's QuikScat instrument captured an inside look at Tropical Storm Neki's winds on Oct. 19 at 0425 UTC (12:25 a.m. EDT). White barbs point to areas of heavy rain. The highest wind speeds, are shown in purple, which indicate winds over 40 knots (46 mph). Credit: NASA JPL, Peter Falco

Tropical Storm Neki formed today about 830 miles southeast of Johnston Island in the Central Pacific Ocean. NASA’s QuikScat and Aqua satellites quickly captured and analyzed winds and temperatures in Neki, enabling forecasters to see the storm strengthening.

Today, October 19, at 11 a.m. EDT (5 a.m. HST) Neki had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, and was moving west-northwest near 14 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 millibars. It was 825 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii and about 830 miles southeast of Johnston Island near latitude 9.5 North and longitude 159.6 West. Neki is expected to shift slowly toward the northwest later tonight or Tuesday, at which time it is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane.

NASA’s QuikScat instrument captured an inside look at Tropical Storm Neki’s surface winds using microwave technology from its vantage point in space on Oct. 19 at 0425 UTC (12:25 a.m. EDT). QuikScat showed highest wind speeds near 40 mph.

NASA’s Aqua satellite also flew above Neki and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument captured a visible, infrared and microwave image of the storm. The visible image showed a storm getting organized and developing the signature tropical storm shape. The infrared and microwave images confirmed some high thunderstorms, indicating some strong convection and a strengthening storm.

Neki is forecast to pass very close to Johnston Island on Wednesday, October 21 as a hurricane.

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102009
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 18 2009

…GUILLERMO STILL A TROPICAL STORM FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII…

AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 153.5 WEST OR ABOUT 605 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

GUILLERMO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP GUILLERMO FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB…29.83 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…29.1N 153.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center: www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc

Weather forecasts of all the islands: www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl

Rob Gutro, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

GOES-11 captured four tropical areas on Aug. 12 at 8 a.m. EDT, from left to right: Trop. Depression Maka, Felicia, now a low pressure area, Tropical Depression 9E, and a developing low near Mexico. Credit: NASA/GOES Project

The GOES-11 satellite is getting a lot of business today, August 12. There are four areas of tropical interest between the Central and the Eastern Pacific Ocean today: two near Hawaii and two from a couple hundred to a thousand miles off the Mexican coast, and GOES-11 captured them all in one image.

GOES-11, or the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NASA’s GOES Project at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. creates some of the GOES images, and they made a stunning image that captures four current areas of interest in the Pacific.

Farthest west lies a new tropical depression in the Central Pacific called Maka. Maka has sustained winds near 35 mph, but is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm as it starts to turn toward the northwest near 12 mph. Maka formed late on Tues. August 11 and 5 a.m. EDT on August 12, it was located far to the west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, about 1,125 miles from there. That puts its center near 14.6 north and 173.5 west, also 305 miles west-southwest of Johnston Island.

Moving eastward, and located to Maka’s northeast is what is left of the once powerful Felicia. She’s now a remnant low pressure system, and is located just east of Maui and the Alenuihaha Channel within the main Hawaiian island chain. The low will move west very slowly over the next couple of days, and isn’t expected to redevelop.

The third tropical area is Tropical Depression 9E (TD9E), lingering in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. TD9E is poorly organized and isn’t expected to strengthen over the next day, but may become a tropical storm at sea over the weekend. At 11 a.m. EDT on August 12, TD9E’s center was located about 1,590 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, near 14.6 north and 132.6 west. Its maximum sustained winds were near 30 mph, and it was moving 14 mph toward the west. Minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.

This is a "full-disk" image of the Earth taken from the GOES-11 satellite at 8 a.m. EDT on Aug. 12. Credit: NASA/GOES Project

Farthest east in the Pacific, and closest to mainland Mexico is a broad low pressure area that looks pretty significant on satellite imagery. It’s about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and moving west-northwest near about 12 mph. The storm is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression and get a name soon.

The GOES-11 satellite captured all four areas of tropical activity in one stunning image at 8 a.m. EDT on August 12. It’s a busy season in the eastern Pacific and GOES is watching.

Winds coming from the direction of Tropical Storm Felicia push clouds westward in this time-lapse movie of Hilo Bay Sunday (Aug 9) afternoon. Photography by Baron Sekiya/Hawaii247.org

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

…FELICIA DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS…

AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OAHU AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY…WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI… KAHOOLAWE…LANAI…AND MOLOKAI…HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH… LONGITUDE 154.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF KAHULUI HAWAII AND ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS…MOSTLY OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB…29.83 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…20.6N 154.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center: www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc

Weather forecasts of all the islands: www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl

Satellite image taken at Aug 11 at 1800 UTC. Images courtesy of NOAA-NASA GOES Project Click on image above for full earth image.

ACTIONS TO TAKE WHEN A HURRICANE NEARS HAWAII
All of Hawaii’s citizens should know what to do during hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. Watches and warnings are prepared for the Hawaiian Islands by the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. When watches and warnings are issued, people should closely monitor radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm’s progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Although you and your family may have never experienced a hurricane, don’t be complacent! It’s not a matter of if a hurricane will occur, but when one will occur. All of the Hawaiian Islands are at risk for a hurricane and we should all know what actions to take.”

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible in the specificed area of the Watch, usually within 48 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued:

Hurricane preparedness supplies at Home Depot in Hilo. Photography by Baron Sekiya/Hawaii247.org

• Fuel and service family vehicles.
• Prepare to cover all windows and door openings with boards, shutters or other shielding materials.
• Check food and water supplies. Have clean, air-tight containers on hand to store at least two weeks of drinking water (14 gallons per person), and stock up on canned provisions. Keep a small cooler with frozen gel packs handy for packing refrigerated items.
• Check prescription medicines – obtain at least 10 days to 2 weeks supply.
• Stock up on extra batteries for radios, flashlights, and lanterns.
• Store and secure outdoor lawn furniture and other loose, lightweight objects, such as garbage cans and garden tools.
• Check and replenish first-aid supplies.
• Have on hand an extra supply of cash.

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of the Warning, usually within 36 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued:

• Follow instructions issued by civil defense. Leave immediately if ordered to do so.
• Complete preparation activities, such as boarding up windows and storing loose objects.
• Evacuate areas that might be affected by storm surge flooding. If evacuating, leave early.
• Notify neighbors and a family member outside of the warned area of your evacuation plans.

Hawaii County Civil Defense Huricane Preparedness Guide: co.hawaii.hi.us/cd/hpg/main.html

The Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross has Hurricane Preparedness Guide

Winds coming from the direction of Tropical Storm Felicia push the cloud cover towards the west in this time-lapse photography movie of Hilo Bay Sunday afternoon. Photography by Baron Sekiya/Hawaii247.org

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 09 2009

…FELICIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING THIS EVENING…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU…THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII…AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY…WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…KAHOOLAWE…LANAI…AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF FELICIA.

AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 149.2 WEST OR ABOUT 395 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO…HAWAII AND ABOUT 560 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU…HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE OUTER WINDS FROM FELICIA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERNMOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS EITHER A TROPICAL STORM OR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH FELICIA IS STILL EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…A BUILDING SWELL GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REMAINING HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF FELICIA WHEN IT REACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…21.0N 149.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Hurricane Categories Explained: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

Weather forecasts of all the islands: www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl

Satellite image taken at Aug 9 at 0900 UTC. Images courtesy of NOAA-NASA GOES Project Click on image above for full earth image.

ACTIONS TO TAKE WHEN A HURRICANE NEARS HAWAII
All of Hawaii’s citizens should know what to do during hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. Watches and warnings are prepared for the Hawaiian Islands by the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. When watches and warnings are issued, people should closely monitor radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm’s progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Although you and your family may have never experienced a hurricane, don’t be complacent! It’s not a matter of if a hurricane will occur, but when one will occur. All of the Hawaiian Islands are at risk for a hurricane and we should all know what actions to take.”

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible in the specificed area of the Watch, usually within 48 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued:

Hurricane preparedness supplies at Home Depot in Hilo. Photography by Baron Sekiya/Hawaii247.org

• Fuel and service family vehicles.
• Prepare to cover all windows and door openings with boards, shutters or other shielding materials.
• Check food and water supplies. Have clean, air-tight containers on hand to store at least two weeks of drinking water (14 gallons per person), and stock up on canned provisions. Keep a small cooler with frozen gel packs handy for packing refrigerated items.
• Check prescription medicines – obtain at least 10 days to 2 weeks supply.
• Stock up on extra batteries for radios, flashlights, and lanterns.
• Store and secure outdoor lawn furniture and other loose, lightweight objects, such as garbage cans and garden tools.
• Check and replenish first-aid supplies.
• Have on hand an extra supply of cash.

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of the Warning, usually within 36 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued:

• Follow instructions issued by civil defense. Leave immediately if ordered to do so.
• Complete preparation activities, such as boarding up windows and storing loose objects.
• Evacuate areas that might be affected by storm surge flooding. If evacuating, leave early.
• Notify neighbors and a family member outside of the warned area of your evacuation plans.

Hawaii County Civil Defense Huricane Preparedness Guide: co.hawaii.hi.us/cd/hpg/main.html

The Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross has Hurricane Preparedness Guide

HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII…AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY…WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…KAHOOLAWE…LANAI…AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE OF HAWAII…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF OAHU…KAUAI…AND NIIHAU…SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.7 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF HILO…HAWAII AND ABOUT 855 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU…HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK… FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…20.3N 144.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

HURRICANE FELICIA APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY…MICROWAVE DATA AND HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 0729 UTC INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FILLED TO 990 MB. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 80 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 700 MB AROUND 0600 UTC. THERE WERE ALSO SFMR WINDS FOR THE SURFACE OF UP TO 69 KT AROUND THE SAME TIME. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL ALSO INDICATED THE AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADJUSTED TO THE SURFACE ARE NEAR 63-68 KT. THESE AIRCRAFT DATA…ALONG WITH DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 4.0…INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS WEAKENED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACCORDING TO THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DATA FROM SEVERAL SATELLITES WITH MICROWAVE DATA FROM AROUND 0300 UTC INDICATED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WAS STARTING TO BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER…WHICH MAY SUGGEST INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STARTING TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE.

THE CURRENT MOTION OF FELICIA IS 280/13…WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 12 HOUR MOTION. SOME OF THE MODELS FORECAST FELICIA TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE BEFORE TURNING DUE WEST…WHILE MOST OF THE OTHERS CALL FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE AT 270 DEGREES WITHIN 12 TO 24. BEYOND 24 HOURS OR SO…ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A DUE WESTWARD HEADING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE…WITH TRACKS CROSSING THE MAIN HAWAII ISLANDS AT VARYING LATITUDES. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE WAS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WAS ALSO SLOWED SLIGHTLY BEYOND 36 HOURS…SINCE THE GUIDANCE WAS QUITE A BIT SLOWER AT THAT TIME. NOTE THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF VERY RELIABLE MODELS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREFORE…THE CENTER OF FELICIA COULD PASS OVER ANY PORTION OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND. THE UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR ABOUT 25 CELSIUS…BUT THESE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER…WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 10 KT…AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 20 KT WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME FELICIA IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THESE FACTORS BY FORECASTING GRADUAL WEAKENING…BUT ALL OF THEM HOLD ON TO A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 36 HOURS…AND SOME EVEN TO 72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS…ICON.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTING…IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THAT PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FELICIA BEING A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS VERY NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ABOUT A 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT BEING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY MORNING…SINCE THE LEAD TIME FOR WARNINGS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IS 36 HOURS.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Hurricane Categories Explained: www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

Weather forecasts of all the islands: www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl

Satellite image taken at Aug 9 at 0900 UTC. Images courtesy of NOAA-NASA GOES Project Click on image above for full earth image.

ACTIONS TO TAKE WHEN A HURRICANE NEARS HAWAII
All of Hawaii’s citizens should know what to do during hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. Watches and warnings are prepared for the Hawaiian Islands by the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. When watches and warnings are issued, people should closely monitor radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm’s progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Although you and your family may have never experienced a hurricane, don’t be complacent! It’s not a matter of if a hurricane will occur, but when one will occur. All of the Hawaiian Islands are at risk for a hurricane and we should all know what actions to take.”

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible in the specificed area of the Watch, usually within 48 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued:

Hurricane preparedness supplies at Home Depot in Hilo. Photography by Baron Sekiya/Hawaii247.org

• Fuel and service family vehicles.
• Prepare to cover all windows and door openings with boards, shutters or other shielding materials.
• Check food and water supplies. Have clean, air-tight containers on hand to store at least two weeks of drinking water (14 gallons per person), and stock up on canned provisions. Keep a small cooler with frozen gel packs handy for packing refrigerated items.
• Check prescription medicines – obtain at least 10 days to 2 weeks supply.
• Stock up on extra batteries for radios, flashlights, and lanterns.
• Store and secure outdoor lawn furniture and other loose, lightweight objects, such as garbage cans and garden tools.
• Check and replenish first-aid supplies.
• Have on hand an extra supply of cash.

For the Central Pacific Ocean starting with the 2009 hurricane season, a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of the Warning, usually within 36 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued:

• Follow instructions issued by civil defense. Leave immediately if ordered to do so.
• Complete preparation activities, such as boarding up windows and storing loose objects.
• Evacuate areas that might be affected by storm surge flooding. If evacuating, leave early.
• Notify neighbors and a family member outside of the warned area of your evacuation plans.

Hawaii County Civil Defense Huricane Preparedness Guide: co.hawaii.hi.us/cd/hpg/main.html

The Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross has Hurricane Preparedness Guide